Beginning with our October 26, 2020 report, we have seasonally adjusted the monthly purchase commitment targets to reflect the relative weight of these products for that month in the 2017 trading data. It should be noted that the proportional increase in the annual targets for 2020 on a monthly basis is provided for information purposes only. Nothing in the text of the agreement suggests that China needs to achieve anything other than the annual targets. For U.S. goods exports, the deal is expected to cover products that accounted for $95.1 billion, or 73 percent of total U.S. goods exports to China ($129.8 billion) in 2017. Of the total exports of products covered in 2017, exports worth $20.9 billion were made by agriculture, $66.5 billion by manufacturing and $7.6 billion by energy. Products discovered by the deal — and therefore have no targets for 2020 — accounted for 27 percent ($34.7 billion) of total U.S. goods exports to China in 2017.
For U.S. export data and Chinese import data, the first phase targets for additional trade for 2020 (in addition to the 2017 base year) are $12.5 billion (agriculture), $32.9 billion (industrial goods) and $18.5 billion (energy). These objectives are set out in Annex 6.1 of the Agreement. China has bilateral investment treaties with more than 100 countries and economies, including Austria, the Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Thailand and the United Kingdom. China`s bilateral investment treaties include expropriation, arbitration, most-favoured-nation treatment and repatriation of investment products. They are generally considered weaker than the investment treaties that the United States wants to negotiate. Data Release Note: This update is based on October 2020 data released on November 25, 2020 for Chinese imports and U.S. exports – preliminary data on U.S. exports to China monitored under the agreement will now be released prior to full release scheduled for December 7, 2020. The next update is based on November 2020 data released on December 25, 2020 (Chinese imports) and December 23, 2020 (U.S.
exports). Preliminary U.S. export data for October recorded no aircraft imports (Harmonized Tariff Schedules 8800 and 8802); All data revisions will be included in a revision published on December 7. China Customs reports that China`s aircraft imports (8802) in October were only $506 million. Under the agreement, China has committed to purchase as much as $63.9 billion of covered goods from the United States by the end of 2020 compared to these 2017 baselines. The definition of the baseline for 2017 using Chinese import statistics implies a purchase target of $173.1 billion for 2020 (red in panel a). Defining the baseline for 2017 using U.S. export statistics implies a target of $159.0 billion for 2020 (in blue in panel a). For all non-covered products, which accounted for 29 percent of total Chinese merchandise imports from the U.S. and 27 percent of total U.S. merchandise exports to China in 2017, the Phase One agreement does not include a legal target. In October 2020, China`s imports of all uncovered products from the United States amounted to $28.4 billion, 25 percent less than at the same time in 2017.
U.S. exports of all uncovered goods to China stood at $22.0 billion in September, down 13% from the same period in 2017 (October data for uncovered products will be available on December 7, 2020. Assessing progress towards the objectives of the first phase of trade in goods requires information from both U.S. export statistics and Chinese import statistics, as stated in Article 6.2.6 of Chapter 6 of the Agreement: „Official Chinese trade data and official U.S. trade data will be used to determine whether this chapter has been implemented.“ One implication is that there are two monthly data sets that need to be tracked (Chinese imports and US exports). Second, there are two different annual and therefore monthly targets, as the base level of Chinese imports for 2017 is different from the base level of U.S. exports in 2017. Finally, the products covered by the purchase obligations are listed at the level of 4, 6, 8 or 10 digits in the Appendix to the Agreement to Annex 6.1; these are then mapped to US or Chinese trade statistics for 2017 and 2020. As of our October 26, 2020 report, we included the U.S.
export product 8800 (in addition to the 8802 aircraft) in the „covered manufacturing“ and total quantity and removed it from the „not covered“ category. Describes the trade agreements in which this country is involved. Provides resources for U.S. companies to obtain information on the use of these agreements. The United States and China have reached a historic and enforceable agreement on a phase one trade agreement that requires structural reforms and other changes in China`s economic and trading system in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency and currency. The Phase One agreement also includes China`s commitment to make significant additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years. It is important that the agreement introduces a robust dispute settlement system that ensures swift and effective implementation and enforcement. The United States has agreed to substantially amend its tariff measures under Article 301.
Although the agreement also sets targets for China`s purchases of certain services traded in the United States, this data is not reported monthly and is not covered here. .